There is a new moveon.org ad that hits McCain for not voting to decide if $13.5 billion tax breaks for big oil should go towards alternatives for oil, money that could have gone towards wind and solar. There needed to be 60 votes and they only got 59. John McCain chose not to vote.

As a result, instead of powering millions of homes with clean energy and building next-generation solar technology, ExxonMobil and other companies are getting billions in tax breaks at a time when they're already making record profits.

BENEATH THE SPIN    • ERIC L. WATTREE

The Crabs Are On The Move

Well, they’re at it again, y’all.  A small minority of Black people are hard at work doing everything they can to undermine the Black community.  This time it’s in the guise of trying to drag down Barack Obama by promoting Cynthia McKinney’s dead-on-arrival candidacy with the Green Party.

I removed it, most of you infants can now get back to sleep with your pacifiers.

I thought I would get a mature response with some criticism, but you guys, sheesh...you give the word "intolerant" a new meaning, is there a special uniform you wear or something?

I read this paragraph today, with a quote from Bill Burton, the Obama spokesman, to Fox News:

"The convention will offer a series of contrasts and comparisions of the McCain record so voters can see how clearly the choice will be in November," Obama spokesman Bill Burton told FOX News. "The convention will also introduce Senator Obama to the country, but it will make sure to convey strongly the differences and choices Obama’s campaign presents over McCain’s."

Carly Fiorina, known best for reassuring ex-Clinton backers that John McCain voted for Ginsburg/Souter/et cetra's confirmation even while McCain says he'd never appoint them, while also hinting that McCain won't give a preference to viagra over contraceptives when it comes to medical coverage(actually, he does!), has met privately with the brother of Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania.  I am not kidding you.   Hillary Clinton's own brother is planning to vote Republican after supporting her in the primaries.

Wasn't Clinton suppose to reach out to these people?  Per the Times Tribune of Scranton, Pennsylvania;

I know many of you guys will say, polls don't mean anything but in case anybody hasn't noticed, John McCain has managed to shore up the conservative base and will surely pick up a hard right neoconservative to run with him.  While Obama has tried to move more toward the center and gather some of the middle vote, McCain has gone hard right while still portraying himself as a leader of change when it comes to alternative energy as well as a proponet of domestic drilling.  Attacking Obama's strengths and going negative has also projected McCain into a 5% national lead (and you guys still want to play nice) and allowed McCain to trump what should be our biggest card, the economy..

The new LA Times poll shows Obama leading McCain 45% to 43%.  This lead is down from the June LA Times poll that showed Obama leading McCain 49% to 37%.  The LA Times and the Republicans would have you believe that the race is tightening and that McCain's negative attacks on Obama are working.

What may be the real story here is that independents are breaking for Obama.  In June, independents favored McCain 44% to 36%.  In the new August poll, independents favor Obama 46% to 35%.

Now if you've been paying attention you are asking yourself, "If Obama went from -8 to +11 with independents, then how did the race get closer?"

The answer is distribution of party affiliation, my dear reader.

If you follow me below the fold, I will deconstruct the math, hit the Republicans over the head with their own numbers, show that the race hasn't tightened at all, and see how much McCain's slime has hurt McCain's favorables..

Has the traditional media worm turned?  Is it possible that Jerome Corsi is the occasion when what we have called the main stream media has finally had enough?  Today I offer an example that may provide a hint.

Scot Lehigh of The Boston Globe is the centrist voice of that major publication's stable of op ed writers.  And today's column, addressing "Doctor" Corsi's latest opus is entitled Doctoring the facts against Obama and is a major takedown of Corsi's Obama Nation.   In his first paragraph he describes the book as a "revelation."  Lest that scare you, it is intended as a sarcastic remark, which he quickly makes clear by noting how often Corsi reminds us he has a doctorate:  on the cover, on the title page, in the author bio (which tells us it is from Harvard), in the preface, and  

Oh, yes, and as a header on every other page throughout the book.

Unfortunately for Corsi's, um, scholarly reputation, the last high-profile work he was involved with didn't withstand independent scrutiny

You should now be relaxed enough for the rest of this review.

Michael Moore has an article posted on HuffPo urging Caroline Kennedy to "Pull a Cheney" and suggest herself as VP.  The article is very compelling.  I'm hoping the following will be a link:

"Caroline: Pull a Cheney!" An Open Letter to Caroline Kennedy (head of the Obama VP search team) from Michael Moore

Almost every Tuesday is primary day somewhere, it seems, and today Wyoming and Washington state get the honors.

The most hotly contested primary race of interest is the Republican race in Wyoming's at-large U.S. House district, where Republican Barbara Cubin's retirement has created an exciting open-seat race.

Orange to Blue Democrat Gary Trauner is the Democratic nominee, while four Republicans (two of them serious candidates) squared off for the nomination.

The GOP nomination, which was contested primarily between wealthy rancher Mark Gordon and Wyoming State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, has apparently gone Lummis' way. She won by 9 points, 46% to 37%.

That's just fine for Trauner, as he won't have to face Gordon's self-funding capabilities ($1 million of his $1.2 million raised was out of pocket), nor his favorable profile (seems to be a good fit for Wyoming, as a rancher).

Lummis has won statewide office before, it is true. But she also has a longstanding feud with popular Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal, which may spur the Governor to campaign harder for Trauner this cycle than he did during Trauner's narrow 2006 loss.

As mcjoan noted earlier, this was an exceptionally ugly primary, and there may well be bad blood between Lummis' supporters, and Gordon's, for several months. Also, both GOP candidates have dumped their financial resources into this race, while Trauner, running unopposed, sits on a nice nest egg of $660,000.

Meanwhile, it is also primary day in Washington State, and the inaugural primary for their "top two" system. This is somewhat similar to Louisiana's old "jungle primary" in that the top two finishers advance to the general, regardless of party. However, unlike the jungle primary, you can't win the whole thing by getting 50% on election day; it is a real primary election.

There are no real competitive primaries at the federal level in Washington state this time out, so this is essentially a beauty contest for general-election candidates. Turnout is expected to be high for a primary in Washington, due to their mail-in ballot system. As such, some were touting the Washington primaries as a preview of the general election matchups between Governor Christine Gregoire and her Republican opponent Dino Rossi, and between Republican Rep. Dave Reichert and his opponent, Orange to Blue Democrat Darcy Burner.

If they are previews of the general, however, we haven't learned anything we didn't know before; both election are going to be very close.

Gregoire is currently edging Rossi, 48% to 46%. She will likely finish the night with a slim lead as well.

Meanwhile, Burner trails Reichert, 47% to 44%, as of last note. However, the total Democratic vote in WA-08 currently exceeds 50%, which is good news.

Given the vagaries of the mail-in system, it's unlikely that results will be official until tomorrow or even Thursday. So good night to you all; we will post the percentages for WA-Gov and WA-08 as soon as we can.

Update: It's now 9 AM Eastern, and well under 50% of precincts are in, both statewide and in WA-08. This may take a while.

On the web:
Darcy Burner for Congress
Gary Trauner for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

In a previous diary I mentioned underdog Oksana Chusovitina, a 33-year-old mother competiting in Women's Gymnastics for the German team.  Oksana is originally from Uzbekistan, but moved to Germany in 2002 to seek treatment for her young son who had been diagnosed with Leukemia.

Oksana began competing with the German gymnastics team and using her prize money to pay for her son's treatment.  She also received gifts and donations from other gymnasts around the world.  Her son's treatment was successful and he is now in remission.  

In 2006 Oksana officially became a citizen of Germany, where she ultimately earned a spot on the Women's Gymnastics team for the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing.  During the Women's Gymnastics prelims Oksana qualified to compete in the individual events on the vault.  Last night she took silver in the event.  

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee emerged from the GOP nomination process as the leaders of their respective GOP factions. Huckabee represents the social conservatives. He aspires to speak for the evangelicals, who reportedly make up 25% of the electorate. Romney represents the business side of the GOP. He is the consummate executive and as a former CEO is the GOP’s possible poster boy for someone to fix the economy. These two factions are warring for the chance to have someone from their camp land as the McCain VP and the fight has major long-term implications for the party.

Announcing a running mate via text messages is only the latest indication that the Obama campaign is really the first 21st century campaign in American politics. Not only is it an absolutely brilliant way to have active voters volunteer what is probably their most reliable contact info (you can gloss over an email, ignore a call via caller ID, but text messages cry out to be read), but it also provides the campaign with an immediate way of contacting (read: mobilizing) thousands of voters in an instant.  

That said, using a new medium to make the announcement raises questions. A friend writes via email:

So what do you all think the text message will be? Will it be quick and easy: "Biden" or text-hip: "BO <3 Kaine" or more formal: "Barack chooses Sen. Evan Bayh (IN) as VP"</p>

Will it include an appeal for $?

Thoughts?  How do you think The Message will read?

Years ago AU Political Scientist Allan Lichtman (Disclaimer: He ran for US Senate in MD as Democrat in 2006, but lost the primary to the eventual winner, Senator Ben Cardin) created The Keys to the Presidency. Based on complicated statistical research, Lichtman uses these keys to predict the winners of presidential elections. He claims that it has worked for every election since 1861.

(One key point: It predicts popular vote winners, not electoral college winners. So while it "worked" in 1876, 1888, and 2000, the electoral college said otherwise.)

More beneath the fold.

Via MyDD, Biden announces it himself:

Hey guys, I'm not the guy. See ya.

He and Richardson can now fight over secretary of state.

So who's left? Assuming slotted speakers at the DNC are not the Veep, then Kaine is out. He's speaking Thursday night before Gore and Obama. Kerry is speaking Wednesday.

Who's that leave? Daschle, Sebelius, and "dark horse".

Of course, slotted speakers can always be rescheduled...

Obama should start using a simple attack line.

With the campaign stuck in summer doldrums, and the speculation about Barack's vice-president at a fever-pitch, all signs point to a surprise so startling, and utterly unexpected, that announcing it Friday evening would drive up interest and coverage for a week!

That's right--the Vice President will be Hillary Clinton.

And for what it's worth, even Ralph Nader seems to believe it.

Many of us are in the late summer doldrums and getting a bit edgy about where the state of the race lays.  We've seen McCain attack and Barack act cool.  We've also pointlessly obssessed over national daily tracking polls and every state poll that comes out.

But whats probably infuriated us the most is the tenor of the campaign from McCain, the complicit media to ingore the clear hypocrisy of the McCain myth versus the McCain man and Obama's seemingly refusal to hit back hard.

We've come to realize the media, which we hate to admit is incredibly important in helping citizens reach their decisions about whom they vote for, will NOT go after McCain.  I mean 'He was a POW for 5 and a half years!!!!' after all.

So what do we do?