With the credit crisis of 2008 mixed with the real estate bubble is really proving to be a double whammy to students in Florida. I'm gonna graduate with about 60,000 thousand in loans after 4 years of University of Tampa not to mention the additional costs of me going to medical school. Thats with the state sponsored bright futures and my grant which took out 25% of my tuition.

The south is known as a Republican stronghold in the last few years after long Democratic traditions, and Democrats are once again standing up to fight for the South. NC and VA are springing up to be swing-states, and Democrats are fighting all over the South for House and Senate seats.

This story has been covered already by a few blogs, but not here, and none seems to have presented the graphic shown below.

Jowie Chen, a doctoral student in political science at Stanford, obtained the records of 2.6 million applications for FEMA disaster assistance in Florida in 2004.  (This happened not because the Bush administration made them available voluntarily, but because four Florida newspapers won a Freedom of Information Act suit.)  Chen then mapped these applications and the subsequent FEMA grants into counties and precincts, added data on actual weather conditions in these locations, their demographic characteristics, and finally local voting patterns in recent Federal elections.  The paper can be found here.  The following map shows part of his results.

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Last week, Senator Russ Feingold’s team called us with great news.  They are sending our campaign a trained campaign staffer as a part of their Patriot Fund Corp program.  The good news didn’t stop there, Senator Feingold also added me to his Progressive Patriots Fund contest, along with only eight other Democratic candidates.

I cannot tell you how honored and appreciative I am.

(h/t to Bob Sackamento for notifying us of this subject)

Barack Obama is speaking in front of the VFW right now in Orlando, and is hitting McCain very hard on his Achilles heel - the fundamental decision to go to war, and for the first time, brings up the fact that McCain pushed for war with Iraq right after 9/11:

Six years ago, I stood up at a time when it was politically difficult to oppose going to war in Iraq, and argued that our first priority had to be finishing the fight against Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Senator McCain was already turning his sights to Iraq just days after 9/11, and he became a leading supporter of an invasion and occupation of a country that had absolutely nothing to do with the 9/11 attacks, and that – as despicable as Saddam Hussein was – posed no imminent threat to the American people.

And he then pivots to the original decision to launch the war in Iraq:

Check out the numbers in Miami-Dade this year alone, from January to August:

January 1, 2008:

August 1, 2008 (PDF):

Of 85,532 new registered voters in the south Florida county, 56,175 were Democrats, only 9,313 were Republican. That is, 66 percent of new registration were Democratic, only 11 percent were Republican (the rest were third party and "no party affiliation").

Even more incredible is the shift in the Latino voter away from the GOP. Of the 45,881 new Hispanic voters, only 7,236, or 16 percent, registered Republican. 25,907, or 56 percent, registered Democratic. The ranks of registered African American has grown by over 10 percent. And sure, Republicans picked up 80 of them, but another 22,035 of them slotted in with the Democrats.

Want to see how far Democrats have come? Let's go back to January 2000:

In 2000, Democrats had a roughly 60,000-vote advantage in the region. Today, it's 146,000. In 2000, 57 percent of Latinos (mostly Cuban Americans) registered Republican, while only 24 percent registered Democratic. That gap has closed significantly today, to 48 percent Republican, 28 percent Democratic. I'd bet quite a bit that the swelling ranks of Latino "no party affiliation" are full of closeted Democrats too ashamed to tell their hard-core Republican parents of their true party sympathies.

This obviously has huge repercussions in several races this fall. At the top of the ticket, Obama will obviously benefit from the increased Democratic performance in the region, and his continued voter registration efforts in Miami-Dade are epic. The campaign plans to squeeze out every last Democrat possible. But lower on the ballot, these numbers have benefits to our three South Florida Democratic challengers in FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25. None of these districts reside entirely within the boundaries of Miami-Dade, but the bulk of their voters do live in that county. Let's see how those district have changed from January 2008 to August 2008 (PDF):

In FL-18, O2B Democrat Annette Taddeo is taking on Illeana Ros-Lehtinen in an R+4.3 district (Bush won it 54-46 in 2004):

In FL-21, Democrat Raul Martinez is taking on Lincoln Diaz-Balart in the toughest district of the lot -- R+6.2 (Bush won it 57-43 in 2004).

And in FL-25, O2B Democrat Joe Garcia is taking on Mario Diaz-Balart in a R+4.4 district (Bush won it 56-44 in 2004).

In a series of elections were every vote will count, the GOP's rapidly eroding voter registration numbers are a telling harbinger of what's to come. All three of these House elections will be close, as will Florida's presidential contest. Every voter registration gets us one step closer to victories that would be game-changing, truly epic.  

On the web:

Orange to Blue ActBlue page
Annette Taddeo for Congress
Raul Martinez for Congress
Joe Garcia for Congress

Since Virginia is in play this year and has 13, possibly deciding, electoral votes it may not be a bad idea for Obama to announce his running mate there. Speculation is running rampant with the convention just a week away and thus far Obama's last announced appearance this week is in Martinsville, Virginia.

Since he'll be there Wednesday everyone has been speculating about Tim Kaine getting the nod. But there are a few other possibilities with Virginia relations.

Tropical Storm Fay is taking aim at south and southwest Florida and could arrive as a hurricane by Tuesday. Although the storm is comparatively weak at this time, residents in the warning area should take her seriously. Since the storm is likely to parallel the west coast of Florida, even small wobbles in the track could mean big changes in both landfall location and intensity:

The outliers in the 8 pm EDT runs continue to be the NOGAPS and UKMET models, which continue to forecast a landfall on the mid-Florida Panhandle or Big Bend area of Florida. In contrast, the 2 am EDT run of the GFS model is doing what the ECMWF model was doing yesterday--taking Fay across central Florida into the Atlantic, then bringing it back across the state from east to west, then into the Panhandle, resulting in a triple hit on Florida. Although these solutions are outliers, we cannot dismiss them. The latest 2 am EDT HWRF model run has moved considerably further south, bringing Fay ashore near Fort Myers as a 70-75 mph storm with a 977 mb pressure. The latest GFDL is almost identical, bringing a 75-80 mph Category 1 hurricane with a 977 mb pressure ashore near Fort Myers. Both models then anticipate a possible threat to South Carolina later in the week after Fay crosses Florida and emerges in the Atlantic. Right now, the best guess is that Fay will hit the coast between Naples and Sarasota, largely sparing the Tampa Bay region.

The triple whammy scenario might sound a little out there. Then again, Fay has been nicknamed "The Joker" by Jeff Masters at the Weather Underground for a reason: she's about the quirkiest, most unpredictable storm I've ever watched develop. The Joker may have a trick or two left up her sleeve, so for those of you in Florida and surrounding states, it's a good idea to check in with the National Hurricane Center and Wunderblog periodically throughout the day.  

Ok this is a bit paranoid. Quite paranoid maybe. But I live in Miami and I know what it looks like when a storm is approaching and has the potential to become big. There is currently a tropical wave near the island of Puerto Rico that will almost surely be named a tropical depression or a tropical storm this afternoon. There is nothing ahead of it but high pressure, low wind shear, and very warm water. These are all the ingredients for rapid deepening, a process by which a tropical storm or hurricane intensifies very quickly. And lastly, the forecast models are predicting that the storm is headed in the direction of Florida. What does this have to do with anything?

Faye Armitage is running for FL-07, against John Mica. She has been endorsed by the Florida Progressive Coalition and the Local, State and National PDA. Faye should be added to the Orange to Blue Candidates. How about helping her to get on that list?

Donate Now at ACT BLUE
We need to change Congress in addition to changing the White House. Florida is a very gerrymandered state and we need more Democrats representing us. This is the best chance we have to throw incumbants like John Mica out of office. Mica, like all Republicans, is not safe this year. FL-07 is an R+3 District. He can be beaten and Faye is the candidate to do it.

Many of you may remember my earlier diary about State Representative Darryl Rouson ("D"-St. Petersburg).  About 10 days ago, a video of him surfaced on YouTube where he was making homophobic comments.  In case you want to see his disgusting anti-gay tirade, which lasted nearly a full minute, you may watch it below.

He is on the August 26th Democratic primary ballot in Florida.  His opponent has a good chance to win if we can give him a little help.  Charles McKenzie, State of Florida Coordinator for Rainbow-PUSH, is getting a lot of newfound grassroots support from civil rights organizations in the wake of the Rouson comments.  Equality Florida, Pinellas Stonewall Democrats, and the FL Chapter of NOW PAC have rallied to his cause.  Online contributions can be made at http://www.mckenzie2008.com

More updates below the fold.

I've decided to start running some analysis for the presidential race.  I'm going to cover races that Pollster.com rates as "tossup".  Tonight: Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Indiana.

UPDATE

I just realized that I forgot to include dots for McCain.  The lines are correct, and the blue dots are also correct

I'll add the red dots for McCain next time

SusanG has been writing frequently on the sketchy dealings of GOP bundler Harry Sargeant. Sargeant first came to attention as the chief bundler in a series of questionable donations to GOP presidential nominee John McCain:

The bundle of $2,300 and $4,600 checks that poured into Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign on March 12 came from an unlikely group of California donors: a mechanic from D&D Auto Repair in Whittier, the manager of Rite Aid Pharmacy No. 5727, the 30-something owners of the Twilight Hookah Lounge in Fullerton.

But the man who gathered checks from them is no stranger to McCain -- he shuttled the Republican on his private plane and held a fundraising event for the candidate at his house in Delray Beach, Fla.

Harry Sargeant III, a former naval officer and the owner of an oil-trading company that recently inked defense contracts potentially worth more than $1 billion, is the archetype of a modern presidential money man. The law forbids high-level supporters from writing huge checks, but with help from friends in the Middle East and the former chief of the CIA's bin Laden unit -- who now serves as a consultant to his company -- Sargeant has raised more than $100,000 for three presidential candidates from a collection of ordinary people, several of whom professed little interest in the outcome of the election.

The trail of shady Sargeant bundles then leads to Sargeant's old fraternity brother (and McCain's potential running mate), Florida Governor Charlie Crist. McClatchy reports:

Jihan Nassar, a homemaker in Corona, Calif., is listed as a $500 donor to the campaign of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. But she insists she never gave a dime.

''I can't make any donations, financially,'' Nassar said Friday. "We never made any donations, sir. I have no idea what you are talking about.''

Nassar and her husband, Waleed, are among more than three dozen California donors listed as giving to Crist's campaign on June 19, 2006 -- donations bundled by a controversial Delray Beach defense contractor now under scrutiny for contributions to GOP presidential candidate John McCain.

On Thursday, the McCain campaign said it would return $50,000 in donations tied to businessman Harry Sargeant III, finance chairman of the Florida Republican Party and a college buddy of Crist's.

Well, guess who else has been a beneficiary of Sargeant's substantial largesse in the past?

Miami's Diaz-Balart brothers, of course.

In toto, the brothers have taken over $20,000 from Sargeant and his family. As the ethical clouds swirl over Sargeant's head, it would be the least they could do, I should think, to return Sargeant's money. Even John McCain has done that, after all.

Failing that, however, please help cancel out Sargeant's money by donating to Orange to Blue candidate Joe Garcia, the opponent of Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart in Florida's 25th District.

Send the message that you won't let Harry Sargeant's shady money buy this election, at the presidential level or the Congressional level as well.

Help Joe Garcia give South Florida the kind of representative they deserve, and help take Washington back from people like Harry Sargeant.

On the web:
Joe Garcia for Congress
Raul Martinez for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue page

This is the fourth in a series of state by state voter registration diaries that I have decided to do rather than the omnibus ones I had done in months past (the states I did diaries for before this one were for the states of North Carolina, Nevada, and Iowa).

With the Olympics begun, the focus of the world is on sports rather than politics.  Now it is time for the candidates for Congress to raise money and get ready for a brutal two months of fall to capture their seat in the House of Representatives.  The Democrats have the majority in the House and are likely to keep it.  However, with so many freshman Democrats, the Republicans are aiming to get back some of what they lost in 2006.  Still, the Republicans are the ones who likely will lose seats.  The NRCC has already told GOP candidates they won’t get as much support as they did in 2006.  Many GOP candidates have retired or resigned, while far fewer Democratic seats are open.  The GOP already lost 3 seats so far this year alone.  In fact, if you account for the three seats Republicans already lost, the Democratic list would be 21 instead of 24.
Below is an overview of all the critical seats of contention in 2008.  The Democrats have 24 seats that may be vulnerable, with 16 seats that are clearly vulnerable (including the three seats they picked up in 2008), while the Republicans appear to have 47 seats that may be vulnerable, with 30 that are clearly vulnerable.  
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.

Exclusive: 'DC Madam' left instructions if 'ever found dead of apparent suicide' By Lori Price 10 Aug 2008 Citizens For Legitimate Government has learned that Deborah Jeane Palfrey's lawyer, Montgomery Blair Sibley, has intervened to stop a lawsuit seeking to prevent the Tarpon Springs, Florida, Police Department from releasing information requested by Sibley pertaining to the investigation of Jeane's death.

Last week I had a huge influx of readers interested in my piece on Eric Cantor. Seems I'm not the only one thinking McCain might just pick Cantor. I think it's a longshot, but possible.

Things are getting very hectic personally. This may be the last newsletter for a few weeks or more. We will be on vacation in California for a couple of weeks and I will have Grand Jury duty after that. Plus work is exploding for me and Joy's dissertation is overdue. Even politically, I will need to put some extra effort into my friend, Devin Cohen's primary election September 9th. But this newsletter I cover some pretty critical stuff.

Why is it important to rehash what Mike Connell did in 2000 Florida and 2004 Ohio? Because those very same key elements for potential election theft are firmly in place within the McCain campaign for 2008.